Associated Incidents
Natalie Behring/Getty
Algorithms have taken hold over our lives whether we appreciate it or not.
When Facebook delivers us clickbait and conspiracy theories, it's an algorithm deciding what you're interested in.
When Uber ratchets up rush-hour prices, it's the service's algorithm kicking in to maximize profits.
When ads for shoes you can't afford follow you around the internet until you give in, it's an algorithm tracking your course.
Algorithms are also taking over policing. In cities like Los Angeles, Atlanta and Philadelphia, "predictive policing" algorithms comb through past crime data to tell officers which people and places are most at risk for future crimes.
The most popular is PredPol, an algorithm developed by the Los Angeles Police Department in collaboration with local universities that takes in hard data about where and when crimes happened and then makes a "hotspot" map of where crime will likely happen next.
But according to a study to be published later this month in the academic journal Significance, PredPol may merely be reinforcing bad police habits. When researchers from the Human Rights Data Analysis Group — a nonprofit dedicated to using science to analyze human-rights violations around the world — applied the tool to crime data in Oakland, the algorithm recommended that police deploy officers to neighborhoods with mostly black residents. As it happens, police in Oakland were already sending officers into these areas.
"These models are supposed to give you some unseen insight into where crime is supposed to be," William Isaac, one of the report's co-authors, said in an interview. "But it's just common-sense stuff, and we make a case that these software suites are basically used as a tool to validate police decisions."
Using a publicly-available version of PredPol's algorithm, researchers Isaac and Kristian Lum used 2010 arrest data from Oakland to predict where crimes would occur in 2011. To compare that map with what's actually going down in Oakland, researchers used data from the Census and the National Crime Victimization Survey to create a heat map showing where drug use in the city was most prevalent in 2011.
But according to a study to be published later this month in the academic journal Significance, PredPol may merely be reinforcing bad police habits. When researchers from the Human Rights Data Analysis Group — a nonprofit dedicated to using science to analyze human-rights violations around the world — applied the tool to crime data in Oakland, the algorithm recommended that police deploy officers to neighborhoods with mostly black residents. As it happens, police in Oakland were already sending officers into these areas.
"These models are supposed to give you some unseen insight into where crime is supposed to be," William Isaac, one of the report's co-authors, said in an interview. "But it's just common-sense stuff, and we make a case that these software suites are basically used as a tool to validate police decisions."
Using a publicly-available version of PredPol's algorithm, researchers Isaac and Kristian Lum used 2010 arrest data from Oakland to predict where crimes would occur in 2011. To compare that map with what's actually going down in Oakland, researchers used data from the Census and the National Crime Victimization Survey to create a heat map showing where drug use in the city was most prevalent in 2011.
A CU Boulder student is arrested for trespassing on the University of Colorado campus after authorities tried to squelch a huge marijuana smoke-in in Boulder, Colorado April 20, 2012 REUTERS/Rick Wilking
In an ideal world, the maps would be similar. But in fact, PredPol directed police to black neighborhoods like West Oakland and International Boulevard instead of zeroing in on where drug crime actually occurred. Predominantly white neighborhoods like Rockridge and Piedmont got a pass, even though white people use illicit drugs at higher rates than minorities.
To see how actual police practices in Oakland matched up with PredPol's recommendations, researchers also compared PredPol's map to a map of where Oakland Police arrested people for drug crimes. The maps were strikingly similar. Regardless of where crime is happening, predominantly black neighborhoods have about 200 times more drug arrests than other Oakland neighborhoods. In other words, police in Oakland are already doing what PredPol's map suggested — over-policing black neighborhoods — rather than zeroing in on where drug crime is happening.
"If you were to look at the data and where they're finding drug crime, it's not the same thing as where the drug crime actually is," Lum said in an interview. "Drug crime is everywhere, but police only find it where they're looking."
PredPol did not respond to Mic's request for comment.
To be clear, Oakland does not currently use PredPol — researchers merely used Oakland as an example of what happens when you apply PredPol to a major metropolitan area. Dozens of othe