インシデント 929: Sustained AI-Driven Russian Disinformation Campaigns Doppelgänger, Storm-1516, and Matryoshka Reportedly Disrupting German Federal Elections

概要: Leading up to Germany’s February 23, 2025, federal election, the alleged Russian Doppelgänger, Storm-1516, and Matryoshka (Operation Overload) disinformation campaigns have reportedly been deploying AI-generated deepfake videos and fake news sites to spread false claims about German politicians and public figures. AI-powered bots have allegedly been amplifying the content across social media. Researchers suggest the campaign sought to erode trust in Germany’s democratic process. Germany's domestic intelligence agency (BfV) described the scale as unprecedented.

Editor Notes: As with most disinformation campaigns, this incident presents certain editorial challenges. Here is a reconstruction of the reported timeline of events pertaining to this incident: (1) On November 12, 2024, Germany announced a snap federal election following the collapse of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s coalition government. (2) On November 21, 2024, John Mark Dougan, a former U.S. sheriff’s deputy who received asylum in Russia, is reported to have begun registering dozens of fake German news websites to spread disinformation. (See Incident 701 for more information on him.) (3) By February 2025, the number of these fake news sites had reportedly grown to 102, some masquerading as national news outlets, others as local media. (4) Earlier, in January 2025, Elon Musk interviewed Alice Weidel, co-leader of Alternative for Germany (AfD), for 75 minutes on X, which reportedly further amplified AfD’s reach. (5) Also that month, deepfake videos reportedly connected to this campaign began appearing online, including a purportedly manipulated video of Natalie Finch, a British mental health nurse, whose promotional video for the University of Bradford was altered to falsely discuss Germany’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU). (6) On January 30, 2025, a fake news site is alleged to have uploaded a deepfake video falsely claiming that Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck conspired with Ukraine to steal 50 paintings from a Berlin art gallery. (7) Around the same time, another deepfake video is reported to have falsely implicated Friedrich Merz, the leader of the CDU and a front-runner for chancellor, as a "person of interest" in a 20-year-old murder case. (8) Throughout January 2025, bot networks allegedly linked to Russian disinformation groups amplified false claims on X, Telegram, Facebook, and Bluesky, with reports suggesting that they largely were supporting the AfD and targeting mainstream political figures. (9) By early February 2025, Russian-linked bot networks had reportedly driven 2.5 million views to disinformation content on X, tripling engagement levels. (10) On February 13, 2025, the Institute for Strategic Dialogue released a report detailing the extent of Russian disinformation and AI-driven election interference in Germany. It can be accessed here: https://www.isdglobal.org/digital_dispatches/coordinated-disinformation-network-uses-ai-media-impersonation-to-target-german-election/. Depending on which investigation one reads, Doppelgänger and Matryoshka may receive more or less emphasis. For example, while The New York Times mentions Doppelgänger and not Matryoshka, the ISD mentions Matryoshka and not Doppelgänger. Please also refer to Incidents 909, 931, 1060, and 1061 when studying this incident. While Incident 931 has not been explicitly attributed to Operation Overload (also known as Matryoshka or Storm-1679), its thematic content and manipulation tactics appear adjacent. (No direct forensic or institutional linkage has been established as of this writing.)